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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.