🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|