How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation β a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu β a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement β and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine β for Ukraine β the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas β even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines β a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority β and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.